21 March 2002
Tsvangirai stronger after flawed poll
Morgan Tsvangirai, the vanquished leader of the Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC) who lost a close but flawed election to President Robert Mugabe
last week, is likely to emerge stronger and the real winner in the long run,
analysts said this week. Tsvangirai insists he was robbed of victory by Mugabe
who he says abused state machinery to rig the poll through pre-election
violence and intimidation and by denying thousands of urban voters the chance
to cast their ballots. The analysts said Mugabes international reputation
was now in tatters and that the 78-year-old Zanu PF leader was more isolated
now than before the poll widely condemned in Western capitals and in Zimbabwe
as heavily flawed. On the other hand Tsvangirai, who turned 50 last week, is
emerging as the real power broker in Zimbabwe, if not the power behind the
throne, said University of Zimbabwe (UZ) political analyst Elphas
Mukonoweshuro.
Mukonoweshuro said Tsvangirais emergence as a major player in
Zimbabwean politics was demonstrated by the flurry of activity among African
leaders now anxious to meet the MDC leader but who in the past had shunned him.
Malawian President Bakili Muluzi and Mozambiques Joaquim Chissano, the
leaders of the Southern Africa Development Community, took time from
celebrating Mugabes victory in Harare on Sunday to visit Tsvangirai.
South African leader Thabo Mbeki and his Nigerian counterpart Olusegun
Obasanjo, part of the troika that make the Commonwealths special team on
Zimbabwe, on Monday joined the well beaten track to meet Tsvangirai for talks.
"The meetings between Tsvangirai and the African leaders are a clear
demonstration that in any equation which needs to be put in place in order to
resolve the Zimbabwean crisis, Tsvangirai will have to feature very
prominently," Mukonoweshuro observed.
Brian Raftopoulos, another UZ political analyst, said the MDC
leaders huge support base shown by his strong run for Mugabes
office in the just-ended poll had finally convinced regional and African
leaders that he was a man to reckon with. "There is now recognition among
African leaders that Tsvangirai is a force and the MDC is a force that needs to
be respected," Raftopoulos told the Financial Gazette. He said Tsvangirai could
emerge much stronger from the current political crisis in Zimbabwe because
senior officials of his party had rallied around him. Raftopoulos said there
were few options left for Tsvangirai to force a re-run of the election because
many Zimbabweans were tired of mass stayaways and Mugabe had enough power to
thwart any moves to remove him from power. "Obviously Tsvangirai is in a very
difficult situation because the state machinery is still very intact and Mugabe
has the support of the regional leaders," he said.
Mukonoweshuro however said the MDC leader could adopt a wait-and-see
attitude because he would not lose much by refusing to participate in the
proposed government of national unity that would, in the eyes of many,
legitimise Mugabes administration. "Tsvangirai does not have to do
anything because anyone can see that although Zanu PF has political power, it
does not have the capacity to manage," said Mukonoweshuro. He said Mugabe would
always be haunted by the fact that he did not have the legitimacy to govern
because his victory was only recognised by a few African countries. Both
Mukonoweshuro and Raftopoulos cautioned Tsvangirai from bowing to pressure from
African leaders and some Zimbabweans to join the proposed government of
national unity. So while under normal circumstances it is the victor who takes
the spoils, in Zimbabwe it might be Tsvangirai - and not Mugabe - who will
emerge as the real winner in the long run after the countrys most
bitterly contested election in 22 years. (ZWNews / Financial Gazette)
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