3 March 2002
South African rumors: Mugabe might step down after elections
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has given an undertaking to step down
as head of state, but only after contesting next weekend's presidential
elections. Southern African government officials have told the Sunday Times
that Mugabe promised to end his 22-year reign after being advised to do so by
Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and Zimbabwean intelligence. The South
African and Nigerian governments, who are concerned about the fallout from next
week's election, have been working to ensure both Mugabe's Zanu PF and the
Movement for Democratic Change accept a package of measures designed to ensure
political and economic stability no matter who wins. They have been worried
that instability will continue if Mugabe continues to hold on to power.
During his last visit to Harare, in January, Obasanjo tried to negotiate
a deal with Mugabe which would have seen the ruling Zanu PF select another
presidential candidate for the election. According to regional officials,
Obasanjo's initiative received the support of South African President Thabo
Mbeki. "Even at that late stage, Obasanjo was trying to convince him that it
would be best if he stepped down on condition of a number of guarantees," one
official said. The guarantees included securing Mugabe's future and making sure
the law would not be used against him. Last year, senior South African and
Zimbabwean intelligence officials discussed a similar strategy. Intelligence
agencies of other Southern African Development Community countries were
canvassed and also advised Zimbabwean intelligence officials to convince their
president to step down. The interaction took place before Zanu PF's national
conference in December with the view to allowing an alternate candidate to be
chosen then. "He [Mugabe] did not take kindly to this. So it fell flat," an
official said. Obasanjo then made the last-ditch attempt to talk to Mugabe.
"The unofficial response from Mugabe was that the time is not opportune at the
moment. He said he must go ahead with the election now, but afterwards he will
pull out," he said. However, there is no firm agreement to bind Mugabe to the
undertaking.
ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe confirmed this week that the
party had also embarked on "several initiatives" with Zanu PF and the MDC to
defuse tensions in Zimbabwe. These included discussions around two "friendly
amendments" to the constitution in favour of the MDC. These are: Aligning the
term of parliament to that of the presidency; and Placing a ceiling on the
number of consecutive terms served by an elected president. The constitution
would also provide for the establishment of an independent electoral commission
to preside over the elections. This would have meant the election would have
been held only in about 18 months' time. "This formed the basis of our proposal
to Zanu in December . . . In that time there would have been reduced tensions
and levels of violence," Motlanthe said. "They [Zanu] said it was too late in
the day to consider this." (Sunday Times, Johannesburg)
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